Medical School Enrollment at Record High as Physician Shortage Looms

Medical schools in the United States saw the highest number of student enrollments on record in 2025, according to new data from the Association of American Medical Colleges (AAMC). The AAMC reported that medical schools enrolled 100,723 students for the 2025–26 academic year, up 1.3 percent from the prior year, marking a rebound after a three-year decline in enrollment. It also reported 23,440 first-year enrollees, pushing total enrollment above the 100,000 mark for the first time and making it the largest incoming medical school class to date.¹

Previous AAMC data showed that applications had fallen to their lowest level since the 2017–18 academic year, with significant declines among matriculants—or enrolled college students—from several groups historically underrepresented in medicine. Despite declining applications, total medical school enrollment has continued to rise over the past decade, a trend fueled more by institutional expansion than by an influx of new applicants.¹

“The growing number of applicants to medical school reflects the continued strong interest in medicine as a career,” said David J. Skorton, MD, president and CEO of the AAMC. “Training the next generation of physicians has always been, and will remain, a core mission of academic medicine.” However, critics note that enrollment growth alone does not guarantee long-term workforce stability or improved patient care outcomes.¹

Physician Shortage and Isolation in U.S. a “Worsening Crisis”

The record-breaking enrollment figures come four years after the American Medical Association (AMA) warned of projected physician shortages nationwide and urged policymakers to take action. While earlier projections estimated a shortfall of more than 130,000 physicians, the AMA now describes the shortage as an active and worsening crisis. The organization cites a convergence of pandemic aftereffects, workforce attrition, administrative burdens, and rising physician isolation and burnout as contributing factors.^{2 3}

Another factor quietly intensifying the strain on the physician workforce is the rise in professional and social isolation—an issue that appears to disproportionately affect women in medicine. A large national study published in Mayo Clinic Proceedings identified social isolation as a distinct and measurable contributor to physician distress, aside from traditional stressors like workload or long hours. The findings further suggest that isolation is not merely an “occupational hazard” of modern medical practice, but increasingly embedded in its structure.^{2 3 4}

“Health care workers—from the person at the front desk to PAs and nurses—sometimes face hostile environments,” said Peter Reilly, North American Healthcare Practice Leader at HUB International, a global insurance brokerage and employee benefits firm that advises health care organizations on workforce risk and retention. “Burnout isn’t just about long hours. It affects financial stability, family life, and emotional resilience. Extra time off when family needs arise and flexibility around schedules can make a meaningful difference.”⁵

Erosion of Public Trust in the Health Care System Persists Beyond the Pandemic

Another challenge further complicating the physician shortage crisis is the growing erosion of public trust in the health care system itself. Multiple studies over the past several years indicate a sustained decline in Americans’ trust in medical doctors, physicians, and hospitals—a trend that peaked during and after the COVID-19 pandemic. Data show that in early 2020, approximately 71.5 percent of Americans reported high trust in physicians and hospitals; by January 2024, that figure had fallen to 40.1 percent.⁶

More recent data suggest trust may be eroding even further. According to Castle Connolly, a health care research and information company known for identifying top U.S. physicians through a peer-nominated and physician-led selection process, only one in four American consumers report having a “great deal” of trust in medical doctors. Nearly half also report delaying or avoiding medical care within the past year. Castle Connolly attributes much of this hesitation not to a rejection of medicine itself, but to difficulties navigating the health care system and finding a physician they trust—concerns that highlight how diminished trust and limited access have become barriers to care, according to the organization.⁷

 Why Would Medical Doctors Want to Work in a Medical System Where Trust Is Eroding?

“The labor shortage continues, and I think it’s fair for people to ask why they would want to work in this environment, where trust in health care providers is constantly being questioned. I find that astonishing,” Reilly says. “Whether it’s vaccine effectiveness or other issues, the list just goes on. For most U.S. industries, we’re past COVID. I’m not sure health care has ever fully emerged from that hangover.”⁵

For many Americans, who were mandated or strongly pressured to take a first-of-its-kind mRNA COVID-19 biological that was developed and authorized on an accelerated timeline and administered under Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) for much of the pandemic, the coercion and sanctions by doctors promoting the COVID shot marked a tipping point in their trust in public health institutions.

In the years since widespread deployment of the aggressive government response to the COVID pandemic, including a first-ever federal COVID shot mandate that included threatened loss of employment for millions of Americans who refused, post-marketing surveillance data, regulatory reviews, and peer-reviewed studies have documented a wide range of serious adverse events linked to the mRNA COVID biological, some of which have prompted updated product labeling and safety communications from federal regulators. Within the past year, multiple studies have examined associations between COVID vaccination and injuries and deaths involving the heart and brain and several other organ systems, further fueling ongoing skepticism toward health care authorities.⁸

The fact that COVID shots did not prevent infection and transmission of the SARS-CoV-2 virus also compromised public trust in the truthfulness of what doctors tell patients about the effectiveness of vaccines.

Some Experts Suggest AI Can Offset Ongoing Physician Shortages

Despite the record-breaking year for medical enrollments, some critics worry that simply expanding the physician pipeline may not resolve deeper structural problems, and that leveraging artificial intelligence is a safer and more reliable alternative. According to ophthalmologist John C. Hagan III, MD, the only viable long-term solution to the physician shortage is not more trainees but AI systems capable of outperforming humans in certain core medical tasks.⁹

In his view, “the only hope for better, more accessible, less expensive medical care… is …medically oriented, patient- and physician-friendly, constantly improving AI.” Dr. Hagan argues that AI systems already diagnose more accurately and efficiently than many physicians, even outperforming them in specialty areas like pathology, radiology, and dermatology,” a difference he describes as “85 percent vs. only 25 percent correct diagnoses” in a set of benchmark cases.⁹

If you would like to receive an e-mail notice of the most recent articles published in The Vaccine Reaction each week, click here.