Cancer Treatments Using mRNA Technology Targeted as COVID Shots Sales Decline

BioNTech SE and Moderna, Inc., two leading pharmaceutical companies that developed the mRNA COVID-19 biological, are facing new financial and regulatory challenges as demand for COVID booster shots continues to fall and U.S. health policy changes reshape the vaccine market.¹

Moderna cut its 2025 sales forecast to between $1.5 billion and $2.2 billion, down as much as one-third from last year. BioNTech (which developed the mRNA Comirnaty biological with Pfizer) also expects lower revenues, projecting between $2 billion and $2.6 billion, about a 20 percent drop from 2024. Analysts say the weaker outlook reflects a combination of reduced global demand and narrower eligibility for mRNA COVID-19 shots in the United States.²

Lower Global Demand and New U.S. COVID Shot Use Guidelines

In August 2025, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approved updated COVID-19 shots from both companies but limited them to adults aged 65 and older or for those at higher risk for severe complications and outcomes from a SARS-CoV-2 infection. The decision marked a federal policy shift from previous years, when the shots were recommended for all adults.

Around the same time, new leadership at the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (DHHS) restructured several federal health agencies. Key staff and advisors were replaced by Secretary of Health and Human Services Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. New members of the Advisory Committee for Immunization Practices (ACIP), who make vaccine use recommendations to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and help to shape national vaccine policy, were appointed by the Secretary.³

Yaron Werber, a senior biotech analyst at investment bank TD Cowen, said:

After the election when RFK definitively got voted in, the sector had a massive correction. And since then, every time there’s been a discussion on COVID vaccines, there’s been corrections along the way.⁴

Declining vaccination rates continue to weigh on the industry’s bottom line. According to the CDC, only 23 percent of Americans received a COVID booster during the 2023–24 season, including 40 percent of those aged 65 and older. Globally, just one-third of people have received at least one booster dose, compared with two-thirds who completed the initial COVID-19 vaccination series.⁵

Evan Seigerman, a senior biotech and pharma analyst at BMO Capital Markets, added:

Even before RFK was making noise, you weren’t seeing a ton of use of COVID vaccines.⁶

mRNA Technology Investments Shift from Vaccines to Cancer Research

Funding for companies developing new mRNA-based medicines has dropped as vaccine demand slows and federal government research and product development priorities shift. According to GlobalData, venture financing for mRNA drug makers fell from $1.1 billion in 2023 to $488 million in 2024, before recovering slightly to $539 million so far in 2025.⁷

Most investment continues to focus on cancer and infectious diseases. These two areas received the largest share of funding between 2023 and 2025 and also make up the majority of mRNA drugs currently in development. Outside of those fields, most mRNA drugs are still in the early research stage, highlighting ongoing challenges in turning new mRNA ideas into approved treatments.⁸

BioNTech, originally founded by oncologists, is also refocusing on cancer research. The company spent $800 million last year to acquire Chinese biotech firm Biotheus, which develops an antibody therapy called BNT327 that helps the immune system target cancer cells. BioNTech is partnering with Bristol Myers Squibb to advance the treatment, sharing both costs and potential profits.⁹

Reduced federal support for biologicals like the COVID shot using mRNA technology has raised concerns about the future of early-stage research and private investment. After recent DHHS policy changes, U.S. biotech firm Strand Therapeutics secured one of the largest venture financing of the year raising $153 million in August 2025 to advance its mRNA-based cancer treatments.¹⁰

Analysts say investor interest may now shift away from vaccines and toward mRNA treatments for other diseases, especially those being developed outside the United States. Some experts note that slower public sector funding could make global partnerships a major source of investment in products using the mRNA technology platform.[11]

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