U.S. Stillbirth Rates 17 Percent Higher Than CDC Reporting

A significant number of stillbirths are happening in pregnancies the medical system labels as safe and at a higher rate in the U.S. than previously reported, according to a new study led by researchers at Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health and Mass General Brigham. The study, published in JAMA on Oct. 27, 2025, according to the researchers, “is one of the largest, most data-rich studies of stillbirth burden to date and uncovers systematic failures in risk recognition and screening.”^{1 2}

According to the study, stillbirth rates are not decreasing despite modern prenatal care, and while most losses involved at least one identifiable clinical risk factor, a substantial share had none—particularly those occurring at or beyond 40 weeks gestation. Nearly half of term stillbirths occurred in women with no identifiable clinical risk factors and are considered preventable. As the authors wrote:

Although commonly perceived to be rare and unavoidable, stillbirth occurs in 5.74 per 1000 U.S. births (10.34 per 1000 births among non-Hispanic Black individuals), and nearly half of term stillbirths are thought to be preventable.¹

The researchers analyzed outcomes from more than 2.7 million pregnancies in the U.S. between 2016 and 2022. Out of those pregnancies, 18,893 ended in stillbirth. They mapped those losses against the full range of maternal, fetal, and obstetric risk factors we rely on in modern prenatal care—conditions like obesity, gestational hypertension, diabetes, fetal growth restriction, decreased movement, congenital anomalies, prior pregnancy complications, and abnormal amniotic fluid levels. They also incorporated socioeconomic variables, including income, racial demographics, and access to obstetric care.^{1 2}

The researchers found that more than one in 150 births ended in stillbirth, a rate noticeably higher than the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)’s commonly cited national average of one in 175—a 17 percent higher stillbirth rate than the agency’s national figure. In low-income communities, the rate climbed to one in 112 births, and in areas with higher proportions of Black families, the rate rose to one in 95, compared with White communities. Rurality or being in closer proximity to a hospital or obstetric provider did not meaningfully lower stillbirth risk. ^{1 2}

Up to 40 Percent of Stillbirths Had “No Clinical Risk Factors”

While 72.3 percent of stillbirths had at least one identified clinical risk factor, more than a quarter (27.7 percent) had none at all. These were “low risk” pregnancies, based on existing models and screening practices. The further along the pregnancy, the larger the gap became. At 38 weeks, 24.1 percent of stillbirths had no risk factors. At 39 weeks, 34.2 percent; and at 40+ weeks, 40.7 percent of stillbirths occurred without a single clinical red flag. ¹

The pregnancies already recognized as high-risk—those with low amniotic fluid, fetal anomalies, or chronic hypertension—behaved as expected and showed the highest stillbirth rates. The unexpected finding was the proportion of losses occurring outside those known high-risk categories.¹

“No Risk Factors” Doesn’t Equal “No Cause”

In obstetrics, risk factors are defined by what medicine already measures. When stillbirths occur in pregnancies without traditional risk indicators, the issue is not that these deaths are unexplainable; it is that current screening models are missing critical signals. This suggests that new or emerging drivers are not incorporated into existing tools, that some frameworks may be outdated, and that silent physiological processes are going undetected. ³

A large body of literature demonstrates that key contributors to stillbirth—such as placental insufficiency, chronic inflammation, microvascular malperfusion, autoimmune-mediated placental injury, and environmental exposures—are not detectable through standard prenatal care, including routine ultrasound. Placental insufficiency and vascular malperfusion, for example, are typically diagnosed only after delivery.

Chronic placental inflammation and immune dysregulation similarly progress without maternal symptoms and are not visible on prenatal imaging. Additionally, environmental toxicants known to impair placental function are not screened at all in U.S. clinical practice. As the American College of Obstetricians (ACOG) guidance notes, many placental disorders that lead to adverse outcomes are pathological diagnoses, not conditions identifiable through routine surveillance.^{4 5 6}

The JAMA study does not address why these conditions are not being detected early, which underlying pathologies went unrecognized, what surveillance tools may be missing, or what new risk exposures have emerged in the post-pandemic era. It also does not engage with the growing body of literature examining fertility and reproductive-health signals associated with mRNA COVID vaccination—signals that researchers and clinicians in multiple studies have argued warrant deeper investigation.¹

New Stillbirth Data Add a Signal That mRNA Shot Given During Pregnancy are Causing Stillbirths

The study comes on the heels of multiple large-scale studies that have identified reproductive and fertility impacts to those who received an mRNA COVID shot. A June 2025 Israeli study found that women who received their first mRNA COVID shot during early pregnancy, specifically between weeks eight and 13, were significantly more likely to experience pregnancy loss than expected. The study, the first national-scale analysis to examine gestational timing in relation to mRNA vaccination, found nearly four additional losses per 100 pregnancies in this group, representing a roughly 40 percent increase over the baseline rate. Most of these losses occurred during late-term pregnancy, with the majority happening after 20 weeks gestation and nearly half after 25 weeks—placing them in the category of stillbirths.⁷

A large-scale population study out of the Czech Republic, published in the International Journal of Risk & Safety in Medicine around the same time, found that women who received a COVID shot prior to conception were significantly less likely to achieve a successful pregnancy compared to unvaccinated women.⁸

U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. eventually called for a federal ban on administering COVID shots during pregnancy, citing insufficient long-term fertility safety data, prompting the CDC to revise its vaccination guidance for children and pregnant women.⁹

Systemic Detection Failures Highlight Obstetric Blind Spots in Stillbirth Prevention

The JAMA findings expose a structural blind spot in modern obstetrics: stillbirths classified as “preventable” are not being prevented. Nearly half of term stillbirths occur in women with no documented clinical risk factors, indicating that the risk-prediction models guiding U.S. prenatal care are not capturing the real drivers of preventable fetal death.¹

“Although momentum toward improving stillbirth research and prevention efforts has increased in recent years, rates in the U.S. remain much higher than in peer countries,” said co-senior author Mark Clapp, maternal-fetal medicine provider in the Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology at Massachusetts General Hospital. “I hope this study will inform policy, practice changes, and future research to ensure no person or family has to experience this outcome.” ²

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