Flu Shot Recipients “More Likely” to Get Influenza Than Unvaccinated

The American Medical Association (AMA) cites that the influenza vaccine is estimated to be 40-60 percent effective at preventing serious infections or death from the influenza virus that affects up to 40 million Americans every year. However, for the 2024-2025 flu “season” the influenza vaccine not only missed the mark on effectiveness, but is linked to an increased risk of infection with influenza in working-age adults, according to a new study conducted by the Cleveland Clinic.^{1 2}

The study, which was published on Medrxiv.org on Apr. 4, 2025 found that this season’s influenza vaccine was ineffective at preventing infection with circulating influenza strains and working-age recipients had an increased risk of gettting sick. “Influenza vaccination of working-aged adults was associated with a higher risk of influenza,” the study states.²

The study, which is not yet peer reviewed, went on to explain that “the cumulative incidence of influenza was similar for the vaccinated and unvaccinated states early, but over the course of the study, the cumulative incidence of influenza increased more rapidly among the vaccinated than the unvaccinated.”

In other words, vaccinated and unvaccinated groups had about the same number of influenza infections at the beginning of the study. However, as time went on, influenza cases increased significantly among the vaccinated group compared to the unvaccinated group. The latest findings suggest that the vaccine’s protection may be extremely short-lived or could even increase infection risk over time—both critical concerns that are not widely communicated during public health vaccine promotion campaigns or in real-time clinical settings.²

The study found that the influenza vaccine’s effectiveness was as low as -26.9 percent, meaning that people who got the vaccine were actually more likely to catch the flu than those who didn’t. This is especially concerning given how widely the flu vaccine is promoted and administered each year to try to prevent the disease, especially in high-risk groups like the elderly.²

Many Americans Now Don’t Want Annual Vaccines Like the Flu Shot

The findings from the Cleveland Clinic come just two years after a poll that found 35 percent of Americans are not concerned about influenza, COVID-19, and RSV (respiratory syncytial virus) cases and do not believe they need to get vaccines to prevent those illnesses. As for why a growing number of Americans are opting out of annual vaccination, the survey found that 66 percent believe that they will recover quickly if they came down with influenza or COVID, and about 33 percent think they don’t need to get flu or COVID shots if they are not considered high-risk for serious complications from these infections. In addition, by 2023, most Americans recognized that RSV, COVID, and influenza are endemic and have learned to “live” with COVID, influenza, and other respiratory viruses that reemerge every year.³

FDA Cancels Annual Vaccine Advisory Committee Meeting for Influenza Vaccine Strain Selection

A few weeks prior to the surprising Cleveland Clinic report on influenza vaccine failures, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) canceled its annual public meeting of the Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee (VRBPAC), which was originally scheduled for Mar. 13, 2025, to select influenza strains that would be included in this season’s flu shot.⁴

It was the first time since the vaccine advisory committee was established in the 1960’s that it did not vote on which influenza strains would be included in the annual flu shot. The VRBPAC is an advisory committee that makes recommendations to the FDA staff and meets annually to make recommendations on the composition of influenza vaccines for the upcoming season. The meeting has occurred every year since the 1960s, even during the pandemic, making the cancellation even more unusual. The VRBPAC meeting cancellation prompted complaints by vaccine proponents about potential delays in influenza vaccine production and availability for the 2025-2026 flu season.⁵

“[The email] said the meeting was canceled—not postponed—and there was no evidence that it would be rescheduled,” pediatrician and vaccine researcher Paul Offit, MD said of the abrupt and unexpected cancelation. “I assume that will be without the advice of the expert independent advisory committee. I don’t know what this means, who made the decision, or why they made the decision. We were told nothing about it.”⁵

FDA, CDC, DOD  Officials Meet Privately to Select Influenza Vaccine Strains

On Mar. 13, 2025, FDA officials convened a meeting attended by officials from the FDA, U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and Department of Defense (DoD) to make recommendations for selection of influenza strains to be included in the 2025-2026 seasonal influenza vaccines.⁶ According to the FDA statement:

The FDA does not anticipate any impact on timing or availability of vaccines for the American public. The recommendations are similar to the previous year’s strain selection.

CDC’s “Wild to Mild” Campaign Also Canceled

The CDC’s “Wild to Mild” campaign—launched in fall 2023 to boost flu vaccine uptake among children—was also recently and quietly canceled. The campaign used graphics of wild animals and their domesticated counterparts to suggest that while the vaccine wouldn’t prevent infection, it could make symptoms less severe, taking the infection from “wild” to “mild.”  The campaign marked a notable shift in messaging, repositioning the flu shot not as a tool to prevent infection with influenza viruses, but as one that might simply lessen the severity of symptoms of influenza.⁵

This recalibration mirrors a broader pattern: In 2021, the CDC also revised its official definition of “vaccination,” changing it from “a substance that provides immunity” to a disease to “a preparation that is administered by injection to stimulate the body’s immune response against a specific infectious agent or disease.”

The move came shortly after the rollout of the mRNA COVID biologics in December 2020, which were found to be ineffective at preventing infection or transmission. Together, these shifts suggest a troubling trend of regulatory bodies redefining success metrics after the fact, potentially to maintain public trust in the effectiveness of biological products, such as this year’s flu shot, that no longer meet their original claims.⁷

“Americans are tired of toxin-loaded injectable products that completely fail and deteriorate their health,” Epidemiologist Nicolas Hulscher said in a post on X.⁸

Public health experts like Kate Kirley, MD—a family physician and director of chronic disease prevention at the American Medical Association (AMA)—continue to strongly recommend the flu shot as one of the best ways to stay healthy. However, promoting a product now shown to be not only ineffective but potentially harmful further compromises trust of a public already shaken by the many misleading and factually incorrect statements made by public health officials and dcotors during the pandemic.¹

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