Nearing the Unthinkable Scenario of 1 in 2 Children With Autism in the U.S.

The prevalence for autism spectrum disorder (ASD) among eight-year-old children in the United States reached 1 in 36 last year. At least, that’s the rate that was confirmed by an analysis published in the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s (CDC) epidemiological digest Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report (MMWR) on Mar. 24, 2023. That rate was based on a survey performed in 2020 as part of a surveillance program known as the Autism and Developmental Disabilities Monitoring (ADDM) Network in 11 states (Arizona, Arkansas, California, Georgia, Maryland, Minnesota, Missouri, New Jersey, Tennessee, Utah and Wisconsin). It represented a 18.2 percent increase over the 1 in 44 rate reported by the CDC in November 2021 for the 2018 survey.^{1 2 3}

The 1 in 36 rate is the latest figure that has been widely reported by the media for more than a year now. But that rate is out of date by about four years. The CDC has yet to publish the results of its 2022 ADDM Network survey, and when it does—probably later this year or early next, the rate will still be at least two years out of date. That’s just the way the process works.

Autism Has Risen Unabated for Decades

The CDC has been reporting the changes in the autism rate for eight-year-old children in the U.S. for surveys done every two years. The agency reported findings for surveys done in 2016 (1 in 54); 2014 (1 in 59); 2012 (1 in 69); 2010 (1 in 68); 2008 (1 in 88); 2006 (1 in 110); 2004 (1 in 125); in 2002 (1 in 150) and 2000 (1 in 150). In the 1990s, the autism rates ranged from 1 in 2,500 to 1 in 1,000. During the 1960s, the autism rate was estimated at 1 in 10,000. By the 1980s, the rate had doubled to 2 in 10,000.^{2 3 4}

Over the past two decades, the autism rates in the U.S. have increased by 16.7 percent in 2004; 12 percent in 2006; 20 percent in 2008; 22.7 percent in 2010; 14.5 percent in 2014; 8.5 percent in 2016 and 18.5 percent in 2018. The only year in which a survey was done that showed a decline from the previous survey was in 2012 when the rate went from 1 in 69 to 1 in 68.²

Based on historical trends, it is likely that ADDM Network surveys will show autism rates of around 1 in 30 for 2020 and 1 in 25 for 2022. At this pace, it is entirely possible that Dr. Stephanie Seneff’s prediction that half of the children in the U.S. could be diagnosed with ASD by 2032 could come true. Imagine that scenario—1 in 2 children in the U.S. diagnosed with autism within the next 10 years.^{4 5 6 7}

Imagine the scenario that comes after that one—more children diagnosed with autism than not diagnosed with autism. Sound impossible? Not if you consider that now more than half of American children suffer from one or more chronic illnesses.

Children With Chronic Illness is the New Normal

A 2011 study published in the journal Academic Pediatrics found an estimated 43 percent of children in the U.S. had “at least 1 of 20 chronic health conditions assessed, increasing to 54.1 percent when overweight, obesity, or being at risk for developmental delays are included.” According to the CDC, more than 40 percent of “school-aged children and adolescents have at least one chronic health condition, such as asthma, obesity, other physical conditions, and behavior/learning problems.” However, the CDC definition of “chronic illnesses” is limited to “conditions that last one year or more and require ongoing medical attention or limit activities of daily living or both.”^{8 9 10}

“Over 1 in 2 kids today has a chronic illness,” said pediatrician Elisa Song, MD of Belmont, California. “By 2025, it will be 8 in 10. Our kids are getting sicker and sicker. This new normal? It’s NOT normal.”^{9 11}

As Seneff’s prediction seems less and less the stuff of science fiction and the U.S. nears ever closer to an autism milestone that would certainly be defined as catastrophic (assuming 1 in 36 children with autism is not catastrophic enough), you would think that American physicians, scientists and public health officials, as well as political leaders, the media and the general population, would be desperate to discover what is behind this epic epidemic. Not so. There is no vibrant national debate investigating and addressing this continually worsening health crisis that is destroying the lives of millions of children and their families.

There is a general acknowledgment that autism rates in the U.S. are growing, but there is no consensus among physicians and scientists about the cause of the epidemic. In an article in Upworthy Science, Caren Chesler noted, “[The] rates of ASD are rising dramatically, making the need to figure out why it’s happening all the more urgent.”¹² She added:

Scientists can’t put their finger on why rates are rising. Some say it’s better diagnosis. That is, it’s not that more people have autism. It’s that we’re better at detecting it. Others attribute it to changes in the diagnostic criteria.¹²

About the best that can be said about the growth in autism is that the reasons for it are “not fully understood and likely complex.” Scott Badesch, past president and CEO of the Autism Society of America, noted that there is no defined proven reason for the increases in autism but the one thing he knows for sure is that “vaccinations do not cause autism.”^12 13

It’s amazing how many people are more than willing to admit that the causes of autism are a mystery but remain unwilling to entertain the notion that environmental toxins like heavy metals, pesticides, chemicals and pollution, as well as ingredients in vaccines, may play a role. The environmental toxins theory is a polarizing one within the medical and scientific communities, which is strange, given what is known about environmental toxins and their effects on our mental and physical health.

We’re Mostly in “Autism Awareness” Mode

Perhaps most odd is the general lack of interest or even curiosity about the autism epidemic on the part of the U.S. government. There is no Select Committee in Congress to try and figure out the causes of autism. There is no “Blue Ribbon” presidential commission. No robust debates on the House and Senate floors. No “war on autism.” No urgency.

What is happening is a lot of talk about “autism awareness.” The United Nations even designated a day (Apr. 2) this year as World Autism Awareness Day. There’s also an Autism Acceptance Month (April), which aims to…

move beyond awareness and focuses on changing societal attitudes towards autism, recognizing the rights of autistic individuals, and promoting inclusive practices. It strives to highlight the strengths and unique perspectives of people on the autism spectrum, while advocating for equal opportunities, respect, and understanding.¹⁴

But that’s pretty much it. As the country is quickly moving to the point where half of its children will be diagnosed with autism, there seems to be more of a social movement to normalize autism and accept the neuroimmune disorder marked by chronic inflammation as simply a genetic variation to justify describing those with the condition as “neurodivergent” or “neurodiverse.” Instead of viewing symptoms of autism as symptoms or brain and immune system dysfunction, this neurodivergency movement appears to be pushing the idea that those diagnosed with autism have brains that, for some reason, simply work differently.^{15 16 17}

In other words, not “typical.” Thus, no need to investigate further because… well… there’s nothing wrong.

An article in Verywell Mind summed up the idea of neurodivergency this way:

People are individual and unique; in the same way that it doesn’t feel the same for all people to have bodies, it doesn’t feel the same for all people with different neurodivergent diagnoses. Life is experienced differently by all humans, whether their brains function very similarly to the majority of people, or very different.¹⁷

Is the medical community so determined to deny the possibility vaccines are playing a role in the development of autism in a growing number of children that they are willing to normalize it?

If you would like to receive an e-mail notice of the most recent articles published in The Vaccine Reaction each week, click here.